How Do We Cope with Immigration ?

This chart displays the Japanese birth numbers and total fertility rate. It means the average number of babies born per woman. The baby was born nearly 3 million just after World War Ⅱ. But it decreased by around 1 million. 


Annual Live Births and Total Fertility Rate(TFR)

Source)The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), 


This is the recent movement of the former chart. Despite government policy to give incentives such as supporting the education fee or fulfillment of nursery facilities, the total fertility rate hit a record low of 1.15 in 2024, and the number of newly born babies finally fell below 700 thousand. This number is around one-fourth of the baby boomer generation.


Source) produced by kanagawa by using national statistics


This represents the change in population by age and future projections. The elderly ratio is expected to increase to around 40%. When I returned from abroad, I felt the safety of Japan, but from around 2000, I began to notice the country's aging.

Changes in Population by Age and Estimation

Source)The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) 

 In the recent decade, the total number of foreign residents has been steadily increasing, and it is now approaching nearly 3 million.

Number of foreign residents in Japan
        
Source)Immigration Services Agency
https://www.moj.go.jp/isa/publications/press/13_00028.html?hl=en


This is the population change. If we specify the Japanese population, it decreases by nearly 1 million per year. Whereas the number of foreign residents increased steadily. The total decrease in population is now approximately 600,000. This means that an increase in foreign residents can help calm the drastic reduction of the total population.

Source) produced by kanagawa by using national statistics

The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) estimates the total population figure for 2070. The proportion of foreign residents to the total population is expected to increase by 10.8% from the recent figure of 2.2%. This will depend on the government’s immigration policy, but if today’s fertility rate continues, the Japanese population may be smaller than this estimate.

Changes in the Population Pyramid by Nationality: Japanese vs. Foreign Residents


Source)IPSS, Population Projections for Japan: 2021-2070
https://www.ipss.go.jp/e4172c17-29ea-4eef-9bf5-466a909fdc08

The next figure displays the status level of foreign residents. The technical intern training and the number of students have increased significantly recently.



The Technical Intern Training Program (TITP)started in 1993. However, this system has numerous problems. The biggest one is that the trainee cannot change employers. In the case of violence and illegal work, such as overworking, this system causes a serious problem.
This system is criticized internationally as "modern slavery" by the ILO and the UN. The other problem is that, despite the name of the trainee program, many companies use them as unskilled, cheap labor. As a result, 7 thousand trainees run away each year. I have experience visiting the NGO that operates a shelter and provides legal support for them. The government revised this system last year, but there is intense criticism that it is not a fundamental reform.


Under these circumstances, a proper immigration policy is urgently required now.

  1. 1st reason is that recovering the total fertility ratio is a crucial matter, but a drastic change is not expected under Japanese circumstances due to several factors, such as the job system and low income.
  2. The second reason is that a rapidly aging society is unsustainable for maintaining the pension system, medical insurance system, and other social services.
  3. 3rd reason is that crime by foreign residents is reported excessively by the mass media. But under this kind of trainee program, it is attributable to the government's responsibility.
  4. The fourth reason is that, sadly, Japan has already lost its attractiveness as a destination for immigration. Low wages and the inconvenience of workers having to bring their families with them. Whereas Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore seem to have more attractiveness and comparatively excellent immigration policies. 
  5. 5th point is that this matter requires a cool and evidence-based discussion. Emotional discussion should be avoided.
  6. The 6th point is that proper control is still required, such as in the total number of immigrants, when observing other countries, including Britain and other European countries. 
























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