A major setback for the left-wing camp in Japan

Japan’s general election was held on February 8, 2026. It was a gamble for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to call a snap election. Under Japan’s constitutional practice, the prime minister can dissolve the House of Representatives (the lower house) and call a general election, typically by advising the Cabinet to act under Article 7 of the Constitution.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi was elected prime minister by the House of Representatives last October, succeeding former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. However, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), to which she belongs, did not hold a majority in the lower house.


Her personal popularity remained high after she took office. Against this backdrop, she suddenly announced the dissolution of the House of Representatives at the beginning of this year. The LDP then won a historic landslide in the ensuing election. Its seat total increased from 198 to 316, meaning that the party now controls more than two-thirds of the seats in the lower house. With a two-thirds majority, the LDP can re-pass legislation rejected by the upper house and enact it under the override procedure.


By contrast, the largest opposition party, the Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA), suffered a crushing defeat. Its seat count fell from 167 to 49. After Prime Minister Takaichi’s sudden announcement of a snap election, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) and Komeito decided to merge and form the CRA. Komeito is a party closely backed by the religious organization Soka Gakkai and is widely regarded as having a strong vote-mobilization capacity.


The reasons for the CRA’s defeat can be summarized as follows. First, the party was formed too suddenly, and its new name was not yet widely recognized by voters. Second, Prime Minister Takaichi’s approval ratings were high, creating strong momentum for the LDP; many unaffiliated voters therefore supported the LDP. By contrast, the CRA’s leadership was older and lacked broad public appeal. Third, the CRA relied on an old-fashioned campaign message, particularly on security policy. It largely repeated slogans such as “maintain peace” and “protect Article 9,” the constitutional clause that renounces war. Fourth, the party lagged behind its rivals in digital campaigning and online messaging.


The leaders of the main party


          CRA                                                              LDP


　　　source)Yoshihiko Noda's X source) Wikipedia


Japan uses a parallel electoral system that combines single-member districts (SMDs) with proportional representation (PR). However, because most seats are determined in SMD contests, outcomes tend to be driven by results in the single-member districts. Under an SMD-centric system, opposition parties must coordinate—often through electoral alliances and candidate adjustments—otherwise they are unlikely to win many seats.


Focusing only on the single-member district (SMD) tier, the LDP won 49% of the vote compared with 22% for the CRA, translating into 249 seats for the LDP and only 7 for the CRA. This outcome was devastating for the former largest opposition party, the CDP. Its total seats in the lower house fell from 144 to 21.


Another notable feature of this election was the sharp decline of left-wing parties. The Japanese Communist Party, Reiwa Shinsengumi, and the Social Democratic Party all lost seats substantially. From this perspective, the election can be seen as marking a broader collapse of Japan’s left-wing bloc.


In my view, many advanced democracies have left-, center-, and right-wing parties, and it is common for these parties to alternate in government through elections. In Japan, however, since the establishment of the postwar constitutional system, the LDP has remained dominant for most of the period, with only brief interruptions lasting a few years.


It is widely thought that rebuilding a moderate liberal party will be extremely difficult. However, under an SMD-based majoritarian electoral system, the opposite outcome may occur. If the LDP loses broad national support in the future, a credible opposition party will be needed to assume power. Preparing for that possibility requires reconstructing the moderate-liberal camp, as represented by the CRA. If Japan were to lose a major opposition party capable of governing as the ruling party, it would be a tragedy for Japanese society.


Results of the 2026 Japanese general election


source) Wikipedia(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Japanese_general_election)

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